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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

Reduce exposure to lead — EH‑08 Data Methodology and Measurement

On this page:  About the National Data  |  Methodology  |  History

About the National Data

Data

Data Source:  National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), CDC/NCHS

Baseline: 2.75 micrograms per deciliter (µg/dL) was the concentration level of lead in blood samples at which 95 percent of the population aged 1 year and over was at or below in 2015-16

Target: 1.74 µg/dL

Numerator
Concentration level of lead in blood at which 95 percent of the population aged 1 year and over is at or below the measured value.
Target-setting method
Projection
Target-setting method details
Linear trend fitted using ordinary least squares and a projection at the 67 percent prediction interval.
1
Target-setting method justification
Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using ordinary least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 67 percent prediction interval was selected because, based on the trajectory of the decline and its slope, it was expected that this target best fit the predicted decline by 2030.

Methodology

Methodology notes

Blood lead measurement is the preferred method of evaluating lead exposure and its human health effects. Blood lead levels reflect both recent intake and equilibration with stored lead in other tissues, particularly in the skeleton. Urine levels may reflect recently absorbed lead, though there is greater individual variation in urine lead than in blood and greater potential for contamination.

Reference: CDC Biomonitoring Summary for Lead

https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/Lead_BiomonitoringSummary.html

History

Comparable HP2020 objective
Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.
Revision History
Revised. 

In 2021 the baseline and numerator text was revised to reflect that this objective is based on measurements in individuals 1 year of age and older.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.