Reduce homicides — IVP‑09 Data Methodology and Measurement

This objective is a Leading Health Indicator (LHI). Learn about LHIs.

On this page: About the National Data | Methodology | History

About the National Data

Data

Data Sources: National Vital Statistics System - Mortality (NVSS-M), CDC/NCHS; Population Estimates, Census

Baseline: 5.9 homicides per 100,000 population occurred in 2018

Target: 5.5 per 100,000

Numerator

Number of deaths due to homicide (ICD-10 codes: *U01–*U02, X85–Y09, Y87.1).

Denominator

Number of persons.

Target-setting method

Projection

Target-setting method details

Linear trend fitted using weighted least squares and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval.

Target-setting method justification

Trend data were evaluated for this objective. Using historical data points, a trend line was fitted using weighted least squares, and the trend was projected into the next decade. This method was used because three or more comparable data points were available, the projected value was within the range of possible values, and a projection at the 25 percent prediction interval was selected because historical rates have been low.

Methodology

Methodology notes

FOR SINGLE DATA YEARS: Death rates are calculated based on the resident population of the United States for the data year involved. Population counts enumerated as of April 1st are used for census years (e.g., 2010). Population estimates as of July 1st are used for all other years. Postcensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for years after a census and match the data year vintage (e.g., July 1, 2011, resident population estimates from Vintage 2011 are used as the denominator for 2011 rates). Intercensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for the years between censuses (e.g., 1991–1999, 2001–2009). Bridged-race categories are used for race-specific population estimates for 1991 and later. FOR MULTIPLE DATA YEARS: Death rates are calculated based on the sum of the resident populations for each of the data years involved (e.g., the denominator of a rate for 2008–2010 combined is the sum of the population estimates for 2008, 2009, and 2010). Population counts enumerated as of April 1st are used for census years (e.g., 2010). Population estimates as of July 1st are used for all other years. Postcensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for post-census years and match the data year vintage (e.g., July 1, 2011, resident population estimates from Vintage 2011 are used as the denominator for 2011 rates). Intercensal population estimates are used in rate calculations for the years between censuses (e.g., 1991–1999, 2001–2009). Bridged-race categories are used for race-specific population estimates for 1991 and later.

Age-adjustment notes

This indicator uses Age-Adjustment Groups:

Total: <1, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
Sex: <1, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
Race/Ethnicity: <1, 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
Geographic Location: <5, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
Marital Status: 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75+
Educational Attainment: 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64

History

Comparable HP2020 objective

Retained, which includes core objectives that are continuing from Healthy People 2020 with no change in measurement.

1. Because Healthy People 2030 objectives have a desired direction (e.g., increase or decrease), the confidence level of a one-sided prediction interval can be used as an indication of how likely a target will be to achieve based on the historical data and fitted trend.